Sommario
➡️Apple sta iniziando l’anno fiscale 2020 in una posizione di forza, poiché Q1 ha visto la società infrangere il suo precedente record di entrate di tutti i tempi.
⚠️I segmenti di business dei servizi e dei dispositivi indossabili, per la casa e gli accessori stanno crescendo a tassi impressionanti e aiuteranno la società a creare una passerella a $ 400 per azione.
Apple è davvero una prima società azionaria, dal momento che il 2020 è iniziato con $ 3,5 miliardi in dividendi e equivalenti pagati e $ 20 miliardi in azioni riacquistate.
È davvero una sorpresa che Apple ( AAPL ) abbia avuto un Q1 2020 molto forte, battendo l’EPS di $ 0,45 e entrate di $ 3,41 miliardi? L’8 / 01/2019, ho dichiarato che AAPL ha avuto una grande opportunità di rompere $ 300 per azione entro maggio 2020, e nel mio articolo del 30/12/2019, ho aumentato tale obiettivo a $ 325 e ho detto che $ 400 entro maggio 2021 sono reali possibilità. La società sta facendo tutto bene e sta sparando su tutti i cilindri. Credo ai massimi storici, AAPL è ancora un Buy e ho intenzione di aumentare il mio obiettivo di prezzo a $ 425 per maggio 2021. Il 28/01/20, il titolo si è chiuso a $ 317,69, quindi se avrò ragione, gli investitori potrebbero guadagnare $ 107,31 per azione, ovvero il 33,78%, sul loro investimento entro il prossimo maggio. Tieni presente che l’aumento del 33,78% è precedente al factoring nei dividendi trimestrali.
(Fonte: Cercando Alpha)
APPLE lo fa di nuovo e fa esplodere il primo trimestre con le sue maggiori entrate trimestrali di sempre
La società ha registrato un aumento del 9% delle entrate e un aumento del 19% degli utili per azione diluita rispetto al primo trimestre del 2019, facendo saltare un altro record nella sua storia. Durante il primo trimestre del 2020, la base attiva di dispositivi installati di AAPL è cresciuta in ciascuno dei suoi segmenti geografici con un’impronta globale di oltre 1,5 miliardi di dispositivi. Il suo fatturato totale per il primo trimestre 2020 è stato di $ 91,8 miliardi, con prodotti in crescita di $ 5,7 miliardi, pari al 7,72%, e servizi in crescita di $ 1,84 miliardi, pari al 16,92%.
AAPL sta ovviamente generando una tonnellata di liquidità, poiché i suoi ricavi sono stati pari a 91,8 miliardi di dollari nel primo trimestre 2020, ma il modo in cui la società l’ha generata è più impressionante per me. Nel primo trimestre del 2018, le vendite di iPhone hanno superato i 60 miliardi di dollari, ma nel 2019 e nel 2020 le vendite non sono state in grado di superare i massimi precedenti. Senza livelli record continui anno dopo anno nelle vendite di iPhone e livelli un po ‘stagnanti di iPad e Mac, la società si è diversificata e i suoi segmenti di business più recenti sono un faro di luce. Nel primo trimestre del 2019, i servizi sono cresciuti del 33,33% e i dispositivi indossabili, per la casa e gli accessori sono aumentati del 19,13% su base annua rispetto al primo trimestre del 2018. Nel primo trimestre del 2020, queste tendenze sono proseguite, con i servizi cresciuti del 36,97% e i dispositivi indossabili, per la casa e gli accessori sono aumentati del 16,92% l’anno oltre l’anno dal 1 ° trimestre 2019.
La combinazione di servizi e indossabili, casa e accessori ha un enorme potenziale per il futuro di AAPL. La combinazione delle vendite di iPad e Mac nel primo trimestre del 2018 è stata di $ 12,58 miliardi, mentre la combinazione di servizi e dispositivi indossabili, casa e accessori è stata di $ 14,61 miliardi. Due anni dopo, la combinazione delle vendite di iPad e Mac nel primo trimestre 2020 era di $ 13,14 miliardi e la combinazione di servizi e dispositivi indossabili, casa e accessori era di $ 22,73 miliardi. I due nuovi segmenti di business di AAPL stanno crescendo rapidamente e generando entrate sequenziali continue anno dopo anno. Stiamo già vedendo le unità di business Services e Wearables, Home and Accessories che stanno riprendendo il gioco dagli altri segmenti dell’azienda quando i cicli non sono così caldi, ma per quanto riguarda il futuro? Penso che questi siano nella sua infanzia e abbiano una pista di crescita davanti.
(Fonte: Steven Fiorillo; Fonte dei dati: Apple)
I dati finanziari di AAPL sono qualcosa di speciale
I dati finanziari di un’azienda illustrano una storia che non può essere fabbricata, perché i numeri non mentono. Uno è uno e non c’è spazio per interpretazioni errate. La capitalizzazione di mercato di AAPL si sta rapidamente avvicinando a $ 1,5 trilioni e, se si esaminano i risultati finanziari del primo trimestre del 2020, la crescita potrebbe sorprendere alcune persone per un’azienda di queste dimensioni. Mentre le attività totali di AAPL sono cresciute solo dello 0,62% nel primo trimestre 2020, sono diventate più efficienti durante le sue operazioni, il che ha avuto un impatto positivo sui profitti. Nel confronto tra il 1 ° trimestre 2019 e il 1 ° trimestre 2020, la società ha registrato una crescita a doppia cifra dell’utile netto, della liquidità generata dalle attività operative e del suo segmento di business dei Servizi. L’utile netto di AAPL per il primo trimestre dell’anno è aumentato di poco più di $ 2,27 miliardi, pari all’11,37%, mentre il denaro generato dalle attività operative è aumentato di circa $ 3,83 miliardi, pari al 14,33%. Oltre a questi tre aumenti a due cifre, AAPL ha aumentato le vendite nette di $ 7,51 miliardi, pari all’8,91%, il segmento dei prodotti delle vendite nette è aumentato di $ 5,67 miliardi, pari al 7,72%, e i margini lordi di AAPL sono aumentati di $ 3,19 miliardi, pari al 9,95%.
La società potrebbe non aumentare di molto la propria base patrimoniale, ma sta monetizzando le proprie risorse in modo molto più efficiente. Il fatto che AAPL stia funzionando in modo più efficiente e spremendo la crescita aggiuntiva dalle sue attività correnti è un segnale positivo per me. Il suo aumento di oltre 3,8 miliardi di dollari in contanti generati dalle attività operative nel corso del primo trimestre è maggiore di quello di molte capitalizzazioni di mercato a media capitalizzazione. Questi numeri sono promettenti perché stanno gettando le basi per una crescita continua per tutto il 2020. AAPL sta iniziando l’anno in una posizione di forza, e se lo slancio continua, allora potremmo semplicemente vedere la società battere i suoi precedenti record di vendite nette complessive e utile netto dell’esercizio.
La società continua a generare valore attraverso riacquisti e dividendi per gli azionisti
If AAPL is buying its own stock on the way up, why wouldn’t you? It gives me a great deal of confidence when companies are buying shares at or near all-time highs, because it signals great confidence in the future. In 2019, AAPL returned $82 billion to shareholders, and in Q1 2019, the company paid $3.6 billion in dividends and equivalents, and repurchased 38 million shares, for a total of $13 billion returned. AAPL swung for the fences in Q1 2020 and has a head start on its 2019 year in generating value for shareholders. In Q1 2020, the company repurchased $20 billion in shares and paid out $3.5 billion in dividends and equivalents. AAPL continues to be a shareholders’ stock by generating tremendous value outside of the share price.
(Source: Steven Fiorillo; Data source: Seeking Alpha)
AAPL has multiple catalysts
I believe that 2020 and 2021 will be great years for AAPL, as there are multiple catalysts on the horizon. The most promising catalyst is 5G, in my opinion. Many people, including myself, have been waiting for the 5G iPhone to debut to upgrade. I still have a 7 Plus, and the only reason I didn’t upgrade to the 11 was 5G. While 5G should create a super-cycle for iPhone upgrades, it should also spill over into iPads. Not everyone purchases a Wi-Fi-only iPad, and once the LTE version is upgraded to 5G, I think we will see a mini super-cycle for iPad upgrades.
Outside of 5G, the Services and Wearables, Home and Accessories business segments should continue to be growing catalysts. I believe that Services will continue to grow, and components such as Apple TV, Arcade and Apple Card will fuel a healthy portion of its growth. On the Wearables, Home and Accessories side, don’t be surprised if you see AAPL create an Apple Home segment to compete with Google (GOOGL) Home or Alexa home products from Amazon (AMZN). I have seen Apple HomeKit products where large companies are creating products that work with Apple Home App, but I think it would be beneficial for AAPL to enter the space. The company has such a loyal customer base that if it branded a package of products to work from the Apple Watch, iPhone or iPad, I think it would be a huge hit.
Conclusion
AAPL is a company investors should own, hold and let the dividends compound. I can’t think of a more shareholder-friendly company when reviewing the value it has generated for shareholders through buybacks and dividends. I believe there is a lot of growth in AAPL’s story and there is no reason why history can’t repeat itself. The next decade has the potential to be just as good as the previous one for the company. I think AAPL is still a Buy, and shares will trade over $400 per share by May 2021.
Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor or professional. This article is my own personal opinion and is not meant to be a recommendation of the purchase or sale of stock. Investors should conduct their own research before investing to see if the companies discussed in this article fits into their portfolio parameters.
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Comments (89)
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TurboRocker
Comments (1.33K)
Today, 8:39 AM
Great article. My opinion: if nothing unexpected happens in the world, Apple will reach $400 before May 2021.
ReplyLike (1)
forrest macgregor
Comments (742)
Yesterday, 10:18 PM
Latest news… the killer Motorola Razr phone ($1500) isn’t shipping, doesn’t work, looks DOA. So much for Apple killers.
http://www.inputmag.com/…
Even more latest news….. Apple shipped about 50% more watches than the entire Swiss watch industry last year.
http://www.cryptocommentary.net/…
Place the carcass near the mouth of the cave with all the other Apple Killers, between Blackberry, Nokia, and Windows Phone.
Honestly, my worst nightmare as an engineer would be to have to work at one of those also-rans. Like stepping out of the tent with your slingshot and seeing a few divisions of Marines.
ReplyLike (1)
combatcorpsmanVN
Comments (4.70K)
Yesterday, 6:03 PM
1.5B AAPL devices, opening up India to AAPL’s business, and selling at a low/mid 20x — What’s not to like!?
On the other hand, a 10% pullback would offer another huge opportunity to increase my Long position.
So, imo — either way is fine for different reasons.
ReplyLike (1)
Up and Away
Comments (1.89K)
Yesterday, 11:41 AM
Apple is priced for perfection already imo.
ReplyLike (1)
sog35
Comments (1.59K)
Yesterday, 2:24 PM
A forward PE of 20 is not priced to perfection.
ReplyLike (2)
Up and Away
Comments (1.89K)
Yesterday, 3:03 PM
Sorry, more like 25.
ReplyLike (1)
Bradmeister
Comments (3.29K)
Yesterday, 3:19 PM
@Up and Away – Still not “priced for perfection” when you consider the fact that Apple’s two fastest-growing business categories—wearables and services—are growing at a blended annual rate of 35%. Not to mention the fact that later this year we’ll see the onset of the biggest smartphone upgrade cycle of all time when Apple introduces its hotly anticipated 5G iPhone product line.
ReplyLike (1)
John Naccarelli
Comments (816)
Yesterday, 11:30 AM
I am of the opposite opinion and the runway is back to 200.
Reply
MasterMethane
Comments (63)
Yesterday, 10:01 AM
Are you the same guy who increased his position in CHK by 50% in June 2019 at $1.75?
Not sure I want your recommendations on any stock price!
ReplyLike (1)
Steven Fiorillo
Comments (601)
Yesterday, 9:11 PM
@MasterMethane Yes I did. I have been on the wrong side of CHK but the right side of many others. I do believe CHK’s management is turning the ship around but I will tell you its hard being a shareholder in CHK
Reply
DivGrowthInvestor
Comments (1.76K)
Yesterday, 8:14 AM
The AAPL is too expensive narrative is not limited to SA:
1) Nov 2017 (Investor Place, Yahoo): +91% since
2) Feb 2019 (Motley Fool): +93% since
3) May 2017 (MarketWatch): +130% since
ReplyLike (3)
phil w
Comments (31)
Feb. 04, 2020
My only concern for Apple right now is the stock at $318 per share is way too much to consider for a buyback. If the stock were $75- $100 cheaper, maybe a buyback would be a fair idea. I would rather see them increase their R & D or increase the dividend.
ReplyLike (5)
BAHAMAS1
Comments (7.64K)
Feb. 04, 2020
Author:
Totally agree with your “Conclusion”.
However, $400 way before May of 2021 plus the Healthcare aspects / potential are Astronomical and just beginning…imo.
ReplyLike (1)
Surfman286
Comments (23)
Feb. 04, 2020
Love it 😻 Long AAPL! Let’s go to $400 and beyond.
ReplyLike (6)
Steven Fiorillo
Comments (601)
Feb. 04, 2020
@Surfman286 Thank you for reading and commenting on the article.
ReplyLike (1)
LazyGringo
Comments (1.21K)
Feb. 04, 2020
AAPL deservess the same PE as MSFT, period
ReplyLike (4)
Steven Fiorillo
Comments (601)
Feb. 04, 2020
@LazyGringo Thank you for reading and commenting on the article. Agreed
ReplyLike (1)
Drumboy
Comments (250)
Feb. 04, 2020
If Tesla and Netflix can do it. Apple can. Or are we still worried about the number of iPhones being sold?
ReplyLike (1)
astout1000
Comments (12)
Feb. 04, 2020
If Telsa can convince the market to treat it as a tech company can you imagine what would happen if Apple actually decided to get into the car business? Its not going to happen but it is an interesting thought experiment.
Reply
Steven Fiorillo
Comments (601)
Feb. 04, 2020
@Drumboy Thank you for reading and commenting on the article. I am not worried one bit. Maybe sales get pushed down the road 3-6 months but everyone who wants a new iPhone will get one eventually
ReplyLike (3)
phil w
Comments (31)
Feb. 04, 2020
Problem with Tesla is it is not profitable. Why would one invest in a company with a negative P/E ration. Is it FOMO?
ReplyLike (3)
Money 29
Comments (1.69K)
Feb. 04, 2020
You want AAPL, is your portfolio, long term. Great management, growing dividend and company solid as a rock.
“Time is the friend of the wonderful business”
– Warren Buffett
ReplyLike (4)
Steven Fiorillo
Comments (601)
Feb. 04, 2020
@Money 29 Thank you for reading and commenting on the article.
ReplyLike (1)
combatcorpsmanVN
Comments (4.70K)
Feb. 04, 2020
Good Article — should redo and expand this Article when AAPL sales in India show the reception of AAPL products and services there.
India should be an interesting next step for AAPL (and for the Shareholders).
AAPL will continue to enhance shareholder value in a BIG way, Imo.
ReplyLike (1)
Steven Fiorillo
Comments (601)
Feb. 04, 2020
@combatcorpsmanVN Thank you for reading and commenting on the article.
Reply
Buyandhold 2012
Comments (20.88K)
Feb. 04, 2020
I just checked out Apple on Yahoo Finance.
Yes, it is a buy.
ReplyLike (5)
Belegde Boterham
Comments (1.09K)
Feb. 04, 2020
@value
Nothing has changed the last decades: “climbing a perpetual wall of worry” 😉
ReplyLike (1)
Value Digger
Comments (7.74K)
Feb. 04, 2020
Due to the big distortion in the global supply chains, we forecast that AAPL is NOT going to resume its full scale production on February 10.
On that front, due to the big disruption in the global supply chains, HYUNDAI just announced that suspends production at its South Korean factories from Tuesday, the first global major automaker to do so outside China, due to supply chain disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak:
news.trust.org/…
According also to the article above:
“Many global automakers including FORD, French car maker PSA Peugeot Citroen and Japan’s NISSAN and HONDA Motor have already suspended some plants in China this week in line with Beijing’s guidelines.”
Reply
LazyGringo
Comments (1.21K)
Feb. 04, 2020
Apple is not going to suspend production already decided
Reply
forrest macgregor
Comments (742)
Feb. 04, 2020
I’m with you on this. Thanks.
Corona virus is a blip… one quarter long at most.
ReplyLike (9)
Steven Fiorillo
Comments (601)
Feb. 04, 2020
@forrest macgregor Thank you for reading and commenting on the article.
Reply
Andres Rueda
Comments (751)
Feb. 04, 2020
I like Samsung better. Both the phones and the stock. Oh, and Samsung is #1. Apple is #3.
ReplyLike (4)
forrest macgregor
Comments (742)
Feb. 04, 2020
Really? They are barely making a profit, and certainly not on their breakable, flammable, profit-free phones. (DRAM and Flash prices are in the tank.). And in Q4, Apple outsold them in phones. And their CEO’s can’t seem to stay out of prison. What’s to like? THey have no ecosystem, just a borrowed OS from google and they do that android thing where you get one OS… the one that comes with your phone. Selling the hardware and replacing it is the only way to get security updates. Whatever…. people want what they want. Take me, for instance. All I want is EPS growth and stock appreciation.
ReplyLike (9)
Andres Rueda
Comments (751)
Feb. 04, 2020
Face it, Apple is only #3, behind both Samsung and Huawei. As overpriced as a San Francisco townhouse with the druggies outside, running on fumes, Steve Jobs, and former glory.
ReplyLike (3)
cryptowarrior
Comments (1.41K)
Feb. 04, 2020
Number one for profit and that’s all I care about. It makes over 85% of the profit in the handset market so as investor I prefer the one that makes the most money not who sells the most, but maybe that’s just me.
ReplyLike (12)
noupf
Comments (22)
Feb. 04, 2020
Not knowing what the next big big product launch is from Apple, I think 5g is the near term lynch pin here. Will it be the super cycle everybody is hoping for, personally I don’t think it’s going to be all that “super”. Will it fuel some sales, yes I believe it will, but until there is a massive “I need a 5g phone because of xyz”, I don’t think the super cycle will be all that big. Perhaps the 5g super cycle will help iPads and watches, which I never gave much thought to. All in all I think the 5g super cycle will be a bit long and drawn out until the next big wow factor makes people really need/want to get a 5g phone. I too hope that Apple continues to diversify into the home as well as having more products involved with the medical and health care industry’s . To me, those would be huge wins and gains for the company. I believe Tim Cook sees where the company and its products need to go in order to fuel future growth, it’s just a matter of how and when do we get there…..
ReplyLike (3)
Donatien Alphonse
Comments (314)
Feb. 04, 2020
Apparently world economy is overly exposed to China. A little glitch in the system like a corona-virus contagion can disrupt the whole supply chain. Without being a doomsayer just would like to highlight that companies should diversify their production even at a higher cost levels , avoiding to be exposed to one region. A sincere backdrop is still possible caused by the outbreak and slowing intertwined economies. China sneezes and USA could catch a cold…
ReplyLike (6)
stevefran
Comments (353)
Feb. 04, 2020
Buffett would agree with everything you wrote and add one thing. Apple has the stickiest products he has ever seen.
ReplyLike (3)
Steven Fiorillo
Comments (601)
Feb. 04, 2020
@stevefran Thank you for reading and commenting on the article.
Reply
FAST///M3
Commenti (376)
04 febbraio 2020
acquista ora e tieni PER SEMPRE
rispondereMi piace ( 23 )
DivGrowthInvestor
Commenti (1.76K)
04 febbraio 2020
Questa è la migliore strategia, @FAST /// M3
Fare trading all’interno e all’esterno dell’AAPL sta perdendo strategia.
rispondereMi piace ( 8 )
ispank
Commenti (1.82K)
04 febbraio 2020
@FAST /// M3: Devo vendere AAPL a $ 410 per azione?
(Modificato)
rispondere
2000se
Commenti (11)
04 febbraio 2020
A cosa serve comprare e tenere per sempre. Non realizzerai mai alcun guadagno. Sembra buono sulla carta, ma realisticamente, perché anche comprare qualcosa che apprezza se non hai intenzione di realizzare i profitti. Potresti anche solo bruciare i soldi. Stessa cosa..
rispondereMi piace ( 2 )
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